And when combined with the overall grosses dating back to the release of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” the domestic box office has gained more than $680 million over the past 10 days. At the end of October, the year-to-date total was 12% behind last year’s pace. Now it is roughly 7% behind.

It’s an astonishing turn of events from six months ago, when movie theaters were facing the worst start to the summer box office in decades.

“It’s an extraordinary result,” said Daniel Loria, senior vice president of The Boxoffice Company. “Cinemas nationwide responded to consumer demand by allocating 75% of all showtimes in the United States to ‘Moana 2,’ ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II,’ according to our data. These blockbusters should enjoy a healthy theatrical run throughout the holiday season and this weekend’s success bodes well for a strong year of moviegoing ahead.”

While there aren’t any “Avatar”-like films in December that could help completely close the gap from 2023, the continued grosses from the three November releases, combined with Christmas titles like “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” should help theaters close the 2024 box office on a high note.

For now, there’s plenty to dig into from this historic weekend for the movie industry. Here are the big takeaways.

There’s nobody like Disney

Last year, when Disney’s 100th anniversary film “Wish” fizzled out to a $31.6 million five-day opening, the Thanksgiving weekend box office only reached $173 million overall. “Moana 2” alone has eclipsed that with $225.5 million over the past five days, passing “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” for the highest Wednesday-Sunday launch in U.S. history.

With a $389 million global start and no family films coming out for the next three weeks, “Moana 2” is certain to become the third $1 billion hit this year. The other two? “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which were also Disney releases.

The past three years have shown with “Top Gun: Maverick” and the “Barbenheimer” craze that other studios are more than capable of supporting the box office. But no studio or franchise has shown the ability to provide the consistent tentpole support that Disney did in the mid-to-late 2010s. After a bumpy 2023, the studio led by CEO Bob Iger is back to delivering multiple megahits, and it’s clear that if the box office is ever going to get back to its pre-pandemic highs, it will need Disney to keep up this high standard.

Streaming helps theaters

The National Association of Theater Owners has maintained that streaming and theatrical don’t have to be at odds, and breakout sequels have proved this. After “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” had a modest theatrical run in 2019, it spent several years building a fanbase from streaming audiences on Netflix that turned out to the tune of $690.5 million worldwide for the 2023 sequel “Across the Spider-Verse.”

For “Moana 2,” which will eclipse its 2016 predecessor’s $643 million theatrical total by next weekend, the power of streaming is in full effect again. With more than 80 billion viewing hours, “Moana” is the most watched movie on Disney+. Over the past five years, it has become a film that is near and dear to countless kids and teens, who made up 40% of the sequel’s audience this weekend.

Without Disney+ keeping Moana and Maui fresh in the minds of families, this sequel probably still could have been successful. But it never would have blown past the $125 million five-day Thanksgiving record held by “Frozen II” by nearly $100 million.

“Wicked” is unstoppable

“Moana 2” was a box office tsunami, but “Wicked” was able to surf on that huge wave rather than get drowned by it. Over five days, the musical grossed $117.5 million, and its Friday–Sunday total of $80 million is just a 28% drop from its $112.5 million opening weekend.

With minimal overseas support — its $262.4 million domestic total comprises 73% of its $359.2 million total so far — “Wicked” won’t end up as one of the top grossing films worldwide. But for American theaters, it’s a windfall, and there’s no sign it’s going to stop.

Because while “Moana 2” will continue to dominate the charts through family turnout, its audience metrics are not quite as strong as “Wicked.” CinemaScore grades came in at A- for “Moana 2” and an A for “Wicked,” and while overall positive scores for both films nearly identical on PostTrak — 89% for “Moana 2” and 90% for “Wicked” — a bigger percentage of the opening weekend audience for “Wicked” gave it the highest rating of “definite recommend” at 80% compared to 64% for “Moana 2.”

Among the films currently in theaters, “Wicked” has the best chance of persuading moviegoers outside its core audience to give it a try based on audience buzz. At this pace, the musical has a chance at a $500 million domestic run — and Universal’s decision to hold singalong screenings at Christmas shows just how confident the studio is in its ability to leg out.

“Gladiator II” is quietly humming along

Paramount’s R-rated contribution to the Thanksgiving bonanza may not have put up the huge numbers of its family friendly counterparts, but “Gladiator II” deserves its laurels nonetheless.

As expected, Ridley Scott’s legacy-quel is quietly drawing in moviegoers looking for something more intense than the musical offerings provided by Disney and Universal. It made $44 million over the extended weekend to bring its total to $112 million domestic and $320 million worldwide, putting it on pace to earn between $450-525 million worldwide.

What’s notable about this weekend is that “Gladiator II” continues to bring out an age-diverse audience, with 52% of this weekend’s crowd under the age of 35. Paramount insiders told TheWrap last week that they anticipated weekend demographics to steadily skew older as Gen X and Boomer audiences who saw the first “Gladiator” in theaters turn out in later weeks. But that hasn’t happened yet, as a new generation is discovering how exciting sword-and-sandals films can be.

Don’t be afraid to counterprogram

The past two weekends haven’t shown signs that moviegoers are turning out to theaters for a double feature like they did for “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” last year. But the market is still supporting three tentpole movies that are attracting different audience segments.

Perhaps the biggest and most encouraging lesson for studios: As long as the movies are well received and don’t have significant core audience overlap, there’s room for more than one big-budget title in theaters at any given time of the year. Amid the uncertainty of the past three years, distributors have tended to give each other’s four-quadrant movies wide berth from each other to avoid competition.

These blockbusters should enjoy a healthy theatrical run throughout the holiday season and this weekend’s success bodes well for a strong year of moviegoing ahead.

— Daniel Loria, The Boxoffice Company

With more films expected to arrive in theaters in the years ahead, there will be less breathing room. But that’s not something anyone should fear. Universal’s decision to move the release of “Wicked” a week back to gain word-of-mouth from a weekend free of “Moana 2” paid off big, and now both films are off to the races.

Next year, Thanksgiving should bring another weekend of riches to studios and theaters alike. Universal will be back with “Wicked — Part II” the weekend before the holiday while Disney will have another sequel with “Zootopia 2.” (The 2016 original grossed more than $1 billion worldwide.) Meanwhile, Paramount and Angel Studios will aim where those studios aren’t with Glen Powell’s take on Stephen King’s “The Running Man” and the animated faith-based musical “David.”

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The only days that topped this Black Friday are the first two days of release for the opening weekend record holder “Avengers: Endgame” in April 2019 and the day after Christmas in 2015, where “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” was on its way to becoming the highest grossing film in domestic box office history.

“Moana 2” is leading the way with $55 million, bringing its total to an incredible $140 million after three days in theaters. Industry estimates have it now on course for a 5-day opening of $220 million, shattering the previous 5-day Thanksgiving record of $125 million set by “Frozen II” after setting a Thanksgiving Day record on Thursday with $28 million.

While audience scores are not as strong as the first “Moana,” they are still positive with a 4.5/5 on PostTrak and an A- on CinemaScore. The movie has a clear runway for continued family turnout all the way until Dec. 20 with the release of Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and Disney’s own “Mufasa.”

In a sterling second is “Wicked” with $32 million on Friday, giving it an estimated 5-day total of $118 million that now stands as the third highest ever Thanksgiving weekend result. Its Friday-Sunday total is estimated to reach $80 million, which is just a 28% drop from its $112.5 million opening.

“Wicked” will be heavily driven by domestic audiences, which comprise approximately 75% of the film’s $358 million estimated global gross through Sunday. But with the strongest audience scores of all the wide releases currently in theaters, it has all the tools to continue legging out strongly into the new year.

Paramount’s “Gladiator II” is coming in a respectable third with a $45 million 5-day total. Its estimated Fri.-Sun. count is $31.7 million, a solid 42% drop from its $55 million opening as it heads for a $112 million 10-day domestic total.

A pair of Christmas-themed holdovers, Amazon MGM’s “Red One” and Lionsgate’s “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” are also getting a Thanksgiving boost.

“Red One” has earned $19 million over five days, with its $13.2 million Fri.-Sun. total the exact same as last weekend. With a $76 million domestic cume, that only cuts the losses for Amazon on this $250 million production, but shows how the rebound in moviegoing interest is trickling down the charts.

“The Biggest Christmas Pageant Ever” completes the top 5 with $5 million over five days, giving the film a four-weekend total of $32 million. In the coming week, it will become Lionsgate’s highest grossing domestic release of 2024.

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With eight years of family goodwill built by endless rewatches on Disney+, the sequel is expected to break the Thanksgiving record set in 2019 by the second weekend of “Frozen II” with $125 million. Globally, “Moana 2” is looking at a launch total of $225 million with a chance of getting closer to the $295 million global start of “Inside Out 2” this past summer.

Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” which opened to a comparatively modest-but-still solid $55.5 million, will find its own lane in theaters from mostly male moviegoers for its R-rated sword fights and ancient Roman spectacle. But “Moana 2,” with its family friendly musical numbers, is likely to not only bring in parents and kids, but also peel away some of the 18-35 female moviegoers that “Wicked” needs to keep turning out not just this winter, but to drum up interest for “Wicked — Part II” next year.

Daniel Loria, editorial director of Boxoffice Pro, expects “Moana 2” to rule the charts this weekend, possibly at the slight expense of “Wicked.” Even if that’s the case, he believes Universal has built up the buzz that “Wicked” needs to succeed longterm — something he believes will be a larger trend this winter.

“I don’t think any of the films this winter have been designed to be make-or-break on opening weekend or even after two weekends, and that’s what you want over the holidays,” Loria said. “Theaters and studios are looking for films with lots of playability. The fact that ‘Wicked’ already has singalong screenings set for Christmas shows how Universal is playing the long game.”

And the long game is looking good. After an inconsistent year filled with strike-induced release droughts between January and May, the combined output of “Moana 2,” “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” promises to deliver one of the biggest Thanksgiving weekends in box office history, challenging for the highest five-day overall gross ever for Thanksgiving weekend, which was set in 2018 with $314 million.

And even with no “Avatar” or “Star Wars”-level end-of-year hits in December, the sheer volume of films is expected to help the market springboard into a 2025 where more consistent output from studios is expected, making it less likely that theaters will deal with weeks-long declines in ticket sales. Exhibitors tell TheWrap they are expecting a 2025 domestic total somewhere between $9.5 billion and $10 billion, which would be an improvement from the $8.9 billion total of 2023 but still short of the $11.3 billion seen in 2019 before inflation adjustment.

“Once again, it’s clear that when healthy competition meets premium experiences, the marketplace thrives, and consumers win,” Michael O’Leary, president of the National Association of Theater Owners, said in a statement Sunday. “This is a tremendous catalyst for a strong box office going into December and the new year.”

The “Moana” tsunami

Eight years ago, “Moana” earned an $82 million five-day Thanksgiving weekend launch and went on to gross $248.7 million domestic and $643.3 million worldwide. It was a respectable result and another hit for Disney, but was well short of the $1 billion global total that another one of the studio’s animated offerings, “Zootopia,” had made earlier in 2016.

But following the 2019 launch of Disney+ and the COVID-19 pandemic that followed a year later, “Moana” rose higher and higher in popularity. The film is the most-watched title on Disney+ since its launch with a staggering 80 billion viewing hours — the equivalent of watching the film 748 million times. It is also ranked by Nielsen as one of the top five most-watched films on any streaming platform in the last five years.

So it is little wonder that last February, during the company’s quarterly earnings call, Disney CEO Bob Iger announced that a “Moana” streaming series previously announced in 2020 was being overhauled into a theatrical sequel. The announcement came as Disney was struggling with movie releases like “The Marvels,” which became the first Marvel Studios production to fail to gross $100 million in North America.

Now “Moana 2” is heavily favored to join Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” and Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” as Disney’s third $1 billion-plus box office grosser in 2024.

It’s part of a radical rebound for Disney after a deeply inconsistent 2023, which included the Thanksgiving flop “Wish,” which earned just $255 million worldwide. That film, meant to celebrate Disney’s 100th anniversary, was preceded in Thanksgiving 2022 with an even worse bomb in “Strange World,” which grossed a paltry $73.6 million globally.

The decision by Iger and Disney to lean harder into sequels — follow-ups to “Zootopia,” “The Incredibles,” “Toy Story” and “Frozen” are on the horizon — is paying off big, with the company’s stock up 27.8% from a year ago. Fueling the recent surge was its fiscal fourth quarter earnings in which Disney+ became one of the first streaming services to turn a yearly profit.

No rest for the “Wicked”

With “Moana 2” heading for one of the biggest launches ever seen at the box office, thanks primarily to nostalgic Zoomers and Maui-loving kids, where can “Wicked” turn to keep its own buzzy opening going?

Families made up a rather small portion of the opening weekend audience of “Wicked,” with moviegoers under 18 only comprising 13% of the audience share. But that might not tell the whole story. Insiders at Universal say that “Wicked” over-indexed in Salt Lake City and Nashville, two cities where theaters particularly rely on families for revenue.

With Thanksgiving coming up, there is a strong chance that a portion of the core audience for “Wicked” — those who were sold on the film prior to release rather than gaining interest through post-release word-of-mouth — is holding off on seeing the film until the holiday weekend when they will have time to head to the theaters, potentially with their families.

The trend could also extend to “Gladiator II,” which saw a fairly even balance of moviegoers over and under the age of 35 this weekend thanks to a strong turnout from moviegoers who were too young to see the first “Gladiator” in theaters nearly a quarter-century ago. But the demographics may skew older as the weekends go by as audiences 45 and up who don’t immediately turn out for films come out to see the Ridley Scott legacyquel.

Even if the lion’s share of family turnout goes to “Moana 2” this coming weekend, Universal is banking on the buzz from such a large number of opening weekend moviegoers drawing interest from families and general audiences in a way that past Broadway adaptations like “In the Heights” and “The Color Purple” failed to do. Many Broadway films fail to draw interest outside of pre-existing musical fans who largely see the film on opening weekend, but “Wicked” should overcome that with its fantasy-filled big-screen appeal — and on the heels of a truly massive merch and marketing blitz.

“‘Moana 2’ is going to be huge, but I think we’ll see continued turnout from 18-35 women for ‘Wicked’ along with some support for couples over Thanksgiving weekend,” Loria said.

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That sits behind only “Deadpool & Wolverine” ($211.4 million) and “Inside Out 2” ($154.2 million) on this year’s opening weekend list, and shatters the $31 million record set in 2014 by “Into the Woods” for the highest opening by a Broadway adaptation.

As expected, the opening weekend audience is being driven by millennial women who grew up enjoying the 2003 Broadway musical, with support from younger women who are fans of Ariana Grande. Universal reports a female audience share of 72%, a higher share than the opening weekend of “Barbie” at 68%, and the same percentage for the opening weekend of the 2017 “Beauty and the Beast” remake.

The 25-34 demographic had the largest share at 29%, with the 18-24 demo at 20% and the 35-44 demographic at 16%.

The next step for “Wicked” will be to turn its stellar word-of-mouth, which includes an “A” on CinemaScore and Rotten Tomatoes scores of 90% critics and 97% audience, into strong holdover grosses for this Thanksgiving weekend and beyond, even against the titanic competition of Disney’s “Moana 2,” which is expected to shatter the $125 million Thanksgiving weekend record set five years ago by “Frozen II.”

“Wicked” will have to rely on domestic audiences for those legs, as the film grossed just $50 million from 61 overseas markets. While that is also a box office record for Broadway adaptations, it is below the $87 million overseas opening of Paramount’s “Gladiator II” next weekend, and both films are expected to be dwarfed internationally by “Moana 2.”

Speaking of “Gladiator II,” the Ridley Scott legacyquel opened to $55.5 million, below projections of a $65 million start, but still enough to be the highest R-rated opening in November. Combined with $50.5 million internationally, the film grossed $106 million worldwide this weekend and has a running global total of $221 million.

“Gladiator II” was expected to be driven by male audiences, and that was indeed the case, as men accounted for 61% of the audience. Somewhat more surprising and encouraging for Paramount is that audience share did not skew towards older men who saw the first “Gladiator” as heavily as expected, with 49% of the audience being from the 18-34 demo and 48% being over the age of 35.

Reception for “Gladiator II” has been generally positive, though not as strong as “Wicked,” with a B on CinemaScore and a 4/5 average on PostTrak. As the sole R-rated tentpole in theaters this winter, “Gladiator II” will have a lane all to itself, and is looking to leg out worldwide with primarily male moviegoers less interested in musicals and family films.

Amazon MGM’s “Red One” is third on the charts, dropping 59% from its already low $32 million opening for $13.2 million. The holiday action film has grossed just $52.9 million domestic and $117.1 million worldwide after two weekends, well short of its $250 million production budget.

In fourth is Angel Studios’ “Bonhoeffer,” a true story drama about a German theologian who resisted the Nazis that is opening to $5.1 million from 1,900 theaters. The film received an A from audiences on CinemaScore and mixed reviews with a 59% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Sony’s “Venom: The Last Dance” completes the top 5 with $4 million for a $133 million domestic total and $456 million worldwide. It just tops Lionsgate’s “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” which earned $3.5 million in its third weekend for a $25.5 million total.

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With $19 million already in the bag from three days of previews, “Wicked” is expected to have massive matinee play from family and female audiences, not just this weekend, but in the weeks to come. That’s even with Disney’s “Moana 2” expected to shatter the Thanksgiving weekend opening record.

Jon M. Chu’s musical has earned stellar reception across the board, including Rotten Tomatoes scores of 89% critics and 98% audience, an A on CinemaScore and a 5/5 on PostTrak, with a stunning 80% surveyed giving the film a “definite recommend,” the highest rating on the audience exit poll.

“Wicked” covers the first act of the 2003 Broadway play, with a second part coming in November 2025. The two films were shot together — albeit with delays caused by last year’s SAG-AFTRA strike — and carried a reported combined production budget of $300 million before a costly, global marketing campaign.

But early signs show that Universal’s “all-in” approach to this film is paying off, with longtime fans of the musical and lead stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande singing its praises on social media. That buzz should resonate not just through this winter, but all the way to next year, when “Wicked — Part II” arrives.

Theaters are also getting a big boost from Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” which is opening to a solid $60 million this weekend. As an R-rated sword-and-sandals epic, this film is looking to play to primarily male and older audiences looking for a big-budget alternative to the musicals and family films that will largely define the holiday season slate.

Reception for the film has been generally positive, but not as strong as “Wicked” or the first “Gladiator,” including Rotten Tomatoes scores of 72% critics and 84% audience, 4/5 on PostTrak and a B on CinemaScore. Paramount is looking to leg out with stronger buzz among its core demographic while getting continued support from overseas markets.

Thanks to these two films, overall grosses for the weekend are currently estimated to blast off to $210 million-plus. That’s a staggering 83% higher than the $115 million Fri.-Sun. overall total grossed on Thanksgiving weekend in 2023.

That is setting up for a Thanksgiving weekend that industry observers anticipate will be one of, if not the largest, in industry history. “Moana 2” is expected to shatter the holiday weekend record set by the second weekend of “Frozen II” with $125 million over five days in 2019, and that, combined with the second weekends of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” could challenge the overall Thanksgiving weekend record of $314 million set in 2018.

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Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the hit Broadway musical is on course for a $100 million-plus opening, easily setting a new record for Broadway adaptations. The preview screening total includes $11 million from Thursday night previews, as well as $5.7 million from Wednesday night and $2.5 million from Monday screenings exclusively for Amazon Prime subscribers.

“Wicked” is the first of a two-part series from Chu and Universal, with each film sporting a $150 million production budget before a costly global marketing campaign. But that campaign is paying off as critics and audiences alike are raving over the film with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 90% critics and 98% audience, giving it the word of mouth that it will need to withstand the audience hype for Disney’s “Moana 2” on Thanksgiving weekend.

Meanwhile, Paramount’s “Gladiator II” put up a respectable $6.5 million from 3,200 locations on Thursday night, as it looks to bring out male audiences — particularly older ones — who are more interested in seeing sword fights than musical numbers.

The sequel to Ridley Scott’s Oscar-winning Roman epic has received mostly positive reviews with a 72% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes. It is currently tracking for a $65 million opening against a reported $250 million budget. Paramount is expecting continued support from overseas markets, having already earned more than $100 million in the first week of international play.

“Wicked: Part One” and “Gladiator II” are now in theaters.

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The original “Gladiator” starred Russell Crowe as a Roman general reduced to life as a gladiator as he seeks to avenge his wife and child who were slain at the hands of a corrupt emperor. It was part of a history of ancient civilization films that peaked in the 50s with films like “The Ten Commandments” and “Ben-Hur” but persisted into the 2000s with films like “Alexander,” “Troy,” and “300” before ceding the cultural spotlight to comic books and sci-fi franchises.

Nearly a quarter-century later, the return of “Gladiator” marks the return of sword-and-sandals for the first time in a generation. Gen X fans of the first film, who are primarily male, are expected to drive turnout on opening weekend with a projected $65 million-plus opening.

“It’s a little funny that we’re getting ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ on the same weekend, because they are both evoking films from a bygone era: the MGM musical and the sword-and-sandals spectacle,” said Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.

“Glicked”? Not so fast

That said, Dergarabedian noted that “Gladiator II” will likely have to find box office legs on its own, because the chances of a high number of moviegoers seeing it with “Wicked” as a double feature a la “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” last year is quite unlikely.

“To expect another ‘Barbenheimer’ because there are two high-profile films releasing on the same weekend is really getting over your skis,” he said. “There might be similarities between ‘Barbie’ and ‘Wicked’ in their appeal as musical, fun films, [but] ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Gladiator II’ are wildly different R-rated films.”

Indeed, “Gladiator II” is not just a much more viscerally violent and angrier film than “Oppenheimer” but also more than the first “Gladiator.” The core audience of “Wicked” that is attracted to that film for its song-and-dance numbers may not have much of an overlap with the audience of an R-rated film that has plenty of gory gladiatorial kills and beheadings in the quest for power.

That said, the one thing “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” have in common is their commitment to big screen spectacle with large practical sets and over-the-top moments, with each one catering to a different audience subset. With intense sword fights involving stars like Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II” will have its own dedicated spot on an end-of-year film slate dominated by family friendly films like “Moana 2,” “Mufasa” and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3.”

It is also likely to get continued support from overseas markets after passing $100 million in international grosses on Tuesday. That will be needed, as “Gladiator II” carries a budget of at least $215 million after tax incentives, along with a reported $100 million marketing budget.

Are you not entertained, Zoomers?

Perhaps the most interesting element of the “Gladiator II” theatrical run will be how it does with moviegoers that were too young — or not even born yet — to see the first “Gladiator” in theaters.

Recently, Paramount has been successful in winning over Gen Z with their legacyquels, whether it is the recent revival of the “Scream” franchise or the landmark success of “Top Gun: Maverick,” which saw a huge launch driven by nostalgic Gen Xers before being sustained in later weeks by younger audiences drawn by the critical acclaim.

With “Wicked,” “Moana 2” and “Mufasa” providing plenty of musical fun, there’s going to be plenty of moviegoers who want something with a bit more intensity. The ideal scenario for “Gladiator II” is that its unique place in the current marketplace allows it to leg out even if its violence limits the reach of its word-of-mouth.

Currently, “Gladiator II” has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 78%, with the general critics consensus being that the film’s story does not hold up to its predecessor, but its thrilling fight scenes do.

Those thrills may be enough to win over a wider swath of moviegoers than just older men, especially considering this is the first sword-and-sandals film in a generation. What was old is new again, and “Gladiator II” may go the distance simply by being the sort of film that has been absent from pop culture for so long that it’s something Gen Z has never seen before.

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That screening kicked off a global, no-expense-spared, nine-digit marketing campaign that Universal hopes will turn “Wicked” into one of the biggest box office hits of the year — and perhaps in doing so buck the trend of movie musicals either flaming out in theaters or having to hide their musical numbers to win over a wider audience.

Early signs point to “Wicked” doing just that. Pre-release projections point to an $80 million-plus opening weekend in the U.S. against a reported $145-160 million budget. That puts it in a similar range to the $82.5 million opening of “Dune: Part Two” back in March, a film that, while very different to “Wicked,” grossed $282 million domestic and $714 million worldwide.

Exhibitor sources also tell TheWrap that optimism is high for “Wicked,” which is enjoying robust presales and already getting major Oscar buzz after its Los Angeles premiere last week and several industry screenings since. If the optimism proves well-founded, it will be quite the rebound for Chu after the last film he directed, “In The Heights,” ended up being one of the big busts of a recovering box office in 2021, despite rave reviews.

“I don’t think we’re in Washington Heights anymore”

Of course, “Wicked” has a lot going for it that “In The Heights” didn’t. For starters, it’s based on a 2003 Broadway musical that is far more well known — “In The Heights” couldn’t drum up moviegoer interest outside of New York and Los Angeles off of its rave reception and connection to “Hamilton” creator Lin-Manuel Miranda.

The “Wicked” musical is based off one of the most famous books and films of all time — “The Wizard of Oz” — which has made phrases like “ruby slippers,” “yellow brick road” and “not in Kansas anymore” permanent parts of the cultural lexicon. A great number of moviegoers may know the songs from “Wicked,” but even more know who the Wicked Witch of the West is.

And by being set in the magical world of Oz, “Wicked” offers a level of jaw-dropping fantasy that even Chu’s colorful depiction of New York in “In The Heights” can’t match. With ornate costuming and massive practical sets used whenever possible, “Wicked” promises the sort of big screen spectacle that often rules the box office charts.

Grande Factor

But perhaps the biggest selling point “Wicked” has going for it is global pop star Ariana Grande. Alongside her Tony-winning co-star Cynthia Erivo, Grande headlines the film as the flighty, vain, but soon-to-be heroic Glinda.

To see Grande’s drawing power, look no further than her hosting gig on “Saturday Night Live” last month, which drew 5.6 million live/same-day viewers. It’s the highest viewership “SNL” has enjoyed since 2021, topping the 5.39 million viewers that tuned in for the show’s 50th season premiere two weeks before.

That fame extends around the world, and with major competition for overseas audiences coming from Paramount’s “Gladiator II” (which made $87 million in its international launch this past weekend) and Disney’s “Moana 2” (more on that in a bit), Grande will be the major selling point for “Wicked” in countries where “The Wizard of Oz” is not a major cultural touchstone.

Grande and Erivo’s casting also makes their musical talents a natural part of the film’s appeal, leading to a marketing campaign from Universal that has touted the film’s big musical numbers like “Defying Gravity” and “Popular” in a year when films like “Wonka,” “Mean Girls” and “Joker: Folie a Deux” have kept their song-and-dance out of their trailers and digital spots with varying levels of success at the box office.

“‘Wicked’ is leaning hard into the fact that it is a musical, and given the source material and the talented actors they have cast, it absolutely should,” said Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.

Is There Room for Elphaba and Maui?

The biggest challenge for “Wicked” won’t be this weekend, but on Thanksgiving weekend, when “Moana 2” arrives with the potential for a holiday record $135 million five-day opening.

As a sequel to one of the most-watched films on Disney+, “Moana 2” is likely to have huge four-quadrant appeal, particularly among the female and family demographics that “Wicked” needs to win over to leg out well into the winter. Perhaps both films will get such effusive word-of-mouth that they won’t box each other out for ticket sales, with moviegoers instead seeing both films over the course of Thanksgiving weekend.

Even if that doesn’t happen, what Universal is at least hoping for this weekend is that “Wicked” gets a level of audience buzz high enough to withstand the hype for “Moana 2.” If that happens, there’s a possibility that even if non-“Wicked” fans opt to see a different film on Thanksgiving, they’ll be intrigued enough to double back and see the musical sometime in December.

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Let’s start with the good news: the Seven Bucks-produced Christmas action film starring Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans performed above Friday estimates with $13.2 million grossed on Saturday, and the film earned an A- on CinemaScore and an 89% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes after getting mostly negative reviews from critics. That could help the film as it tries to leg out into December as a seasonal offering.

But a $34 million start, which hits the top end of pre-release projections, would still be considered a huge bust for a $250 million action film starring A-listers like Johnson and Evans were it released by a legacy studio that doesn’t have the largesse of a parent company like Amazon.

It’s not a particularly strong showing for Dwayne Johnson either. “Red One” is opening similar to the openings he earned for the $120 million budgeted “Rampage,” which launched to $35.7 million before inflation adjustment in 2018, and the $50 million-budgeted “Central Intelligence,” which opened to $35.5 million in 2016.

Amazon MGM maintains that it judges the return on investment for its films on not just their theatrical grosses but the long-term value it brings to Prime Video. “Red One” was initially greenlit as a streaming exclusive title prior to Amazon’s acquisition of MGM in 2023 but pivoted to a theatrical debut in part to raise the film’s profile and also to show the studio’s commitment to theatrical distribution.

The business brought by “Red One” will certainly be a benefit to theaters, which have seen lower-than-expected numbers in October and early November after “Joker: Folie a Deux” failed to be the tentpole hit sequel exhibitors hoped. But more anticipated and better reviewed films are on cinemas’ doorstep with Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II” coming on Friday, followed by Disney’s “Moana 2” — also starring Johnson — on Thanksgiving.

Those films could very well cut “Red One” off from the audiences that may otherwise be interested in it due to the strong word-of-mouth from opening weekend crowds, many of whom are devoted fans of Johnson. If that happens, any success “Red One” sees will probably take shape in the form of streaming viewership data that, unlike box office numbers, isn’t publicly disclosed.

This weekend’s overall grosses are set to come in at an estimated $76 million, around 35% down from the same weekend last year when “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” opened in theaters. The domestic box office is approximately down 12% from last year, but that gap will begin to drop next weekend should “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” meet or exceed their projected openings of $80 million and $65 million respectively.

Sony’s “Venom: The Last Dance” only needed $7.3 million to take the No. 2 spot on the charts this weekend, bringing its domestic total to $127.6 million. Overseas, the film continues to show considerable legs along with a boost from China that its 2021 predecessor, “Let There Be Carnage,” did not have. With $436 million grossed worldwide, “The Last Dance” is $70 million away from passing the $506 million global total of “Carnage.”

Lionsgate’s “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” is in third, grossing a solid $5.4 million in its second weekend. With just under $20 million grossed so far against a $10 million budget, the film has already exceeded the domestic total of Lionsgate’s late summer bomb “Borderlands” and needs just $15 million to become the studio’s highest grossing film this year.

A24’s “Heretic” also held well with $5.1 million in its second weekend for a $20.4 million two-weekend total, while Universal/DreamWorks’ “The Wild Robot” stayed in the top 5 for one more weekend with $4.3 million. With $137 million domestic and $308 million worldwide, “The Wild Robot” has legged out to a successful theatrical run with a sequel now greenlit.

Outside the top 5, Focus Features’ “Conclave” continues to perform well among older audiences with $2.8 million in its fourth weekend for a $26.5 million total. The Tagalog romance film “Hello, Love, Again” cracked the top 10 in its opening weekend, grossing $2.5 million from just 250 locations.

Finally, there’s Searchlight’s “A Real Pain” and Neon’s “Anora” rounding out the top 10. “A Real Pain” expanded wide to 1,185 locations this weekend, grossing a decent $2.3 million after earning $700,000 in limited release for a $3 million total. “Anora” added just under 400 locations in its fifth weekend and grossed $1.75 million in its fifth weekend to bring its total to $10.4 million.

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That’s on the low end of pre-release projections of $30-34 million, which itself was a bleak outlook for this $250 million production that faced plenty of snafus first reported by TheWrap.

The only silver lining for “Red One” is that early audiences, many of whom are likely to be fans of lead star Dwayne Johnson, enjoyed the film to the tune of an A- on CinemaScore. That’s better than the B+ earned by Johnson’s DC film “Black Adam” in 2022.

As a streamer distributor, Amazon MGM views theatrical releases as a springboard for increased attention to their films on Prime Video and other home platforms. Since acquiring MGM last year, Amazon has focused its theatrical slate on low-to-mid-budget titles like “Challengers” and “My Old Ass,” but “Red One,” which was originally greenlit for a streaming release, marks the first time since the merger that Amazon has sent a tentpole-budget film into theaters.

But “Red One” faces an uphill battle to leg out in theaters given major competition from films like Universal’s “Wicked,” Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” and Disney’s “Moana 2” over the next two weeks. Even a lengthy box office run as a Christmas title will not make the film profitable from theatrical grosses alone, and its return on investment as a streaming title will be much more abstract and based on confidential viewership data.

Overall grosses will be in the $65-70 million range, a range that the box office has not fallen to since April. Sony’s “Venom: The Last Dance” will take the No. 2 spot with an estimated fourth weekend total of $6.5 million, while Lionsgate’s “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” is holding decently in its second weekend with $5 million.

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